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The future of European residential real estate markets (Part 2)

March 4th, 2008

These figures do not look fatal, but it is necessary to recall, that real estate market is rather conservative and can react to a crisis situation rather slowly.
Therefore other parameters can be more evident: sales volumes, amount of building permits, amount of loaned credits, and amount of bankruptcies of house owners. So, according to the Bank of Spain, last July the amount of building permits has decreased by 38 % for the 12-month’s period that can be interpreted as reaction of he builders to big overstocking of the market with ready houses.

What will be with real estate markets of Europe and America? If it had happened twenty years ago, it would be possible to say like «overheated - cool down». The market would have run for some time into recession, the prices would have been a little lowered, and then the market would have recovered. However in conditions of strong connectivity of the markets and increased dependence on financial sector, it is very difficult to make the forecast.
Besides, simultaneously bubbles have swelled in other markets - energy carriers, metals, foodstuffs. It can speak about the similar reasons for rise in prices, and consequently, that question of the future of real estate market depend substantially now not on behavior of local players, but on the policy of financial authorities in leading countries (Federal Reserve System and Central Banks).

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